The Federal Reserve has lowered the fed funds rate by 1.25% over the past four weeks or so. The prime rate has fallen in step as usual. So why have mortgage interest rates steadily increased over the past two weeks?
The answer is somewhat simple. The "Bond Market" disagrees with the "Fed" on where Long Term interest rates are going. The Federal Reserve bank is charged with maintaining "Stability of Price" within the economy. But they also act to keep the economy from sliding into a recession. There are a number of factors influencing both the Fed and the Bond Market these days. Remember, the bond market controls what happens to rates on 30 year mortgages, the Federal Reserve does not.
The Federal Reserve sees the numbers that reflect an inflationary environment. They watch these numbers very closely. They also see the risks to the housing industry, due to lower demand, the effects of increasing foreclosures, the sub prime mortgage debacle. More recently, the numbers would indicate that a recession is possibly on the horizon. Many large financial institutions have incurred large losses due to sub prime mortgage write downs. The Fed's lowering interest rates will help these institutions as well as individual homeowners who have sub prime adjustable rate mortgages coming up for adjustment.
The bond market has had to deal with the aftermath and on going issue associated with the "Sub prime Mortgage Market". There is virtually little to no liquidity in the markets to issue new mortgage backed bonds/securities these days. Just ask a lender for a quote on a 30 year fixed rate jumbo loan and you'll be shocked.
Historical spreads between conforming loan rates and jumbo rates has hovered at about .25 to .375% basis points higher for the jumbo. Today, that spread is close to 1.25 basis points. It is the clearest evidence that the market in which mortgage backed bonds operates, are not operating as usual.
So the Fed and Bond markets are moving in opposite directions. The Fed is lowering "Interest Rates" (Short Term) while the bond market is pushing rates up. Whether bond traders actually see serious inflation up the road or some force in the credit markets is inducing the massive selling over the past two weeks, rates on 30 year mortgages have risen almost 1 per cent age point in less than four weeks. Almost unprecedented and shocking for sure. We'll see if the selling abates as it seems bonds are way oversold, and if bond traders begin buying back their positions and rates begin to move back down. Very interesting stuff going on right now. The next four weeks should be very interesting for the "Bond Market", the Federal Reserve and long term mortgage interest rates.